Where does your EV run short in winter?

What we model

• Highway range = official NRCan range × 0.90 (steady 100–110 km/h) × the share of range kept at that temperature: 56% at −30 °C, 66% at −20 °C, 76% at −10 °C, 86% at 0 °C, 95% at 10 °C, 100% at 20 °C. Cars with a confirmed heat pump lose a quarter less (for example 75% instead of 66% at −20 °C). An unknown heat pump counts as none.
• Temperature is the 1991–2020 ECCC daily mean for the month, averaged over 2–4 weather stations along the road. Cold snaps use a flat −20 °C or −30 °C.
• You leave full and keep a 10% reserve, so the first leg can use 90% of range. Each later leg runs from 10% to 80% (70%). A trip is comfortable when every stretch uses at most 80% of that, tight when it works with less margin.
• A charger fits when it has your car's plug and access: CCS1 sites need a CCS1 car or a carried adapter, Tesla Superchargers need a Tesla or a car with Supercharger access, "Teslas only" sites count only for Teslas. Restricted and limited-hours sites are never planned.
• Stops are the fewest that work, counting the drive off the highway and back. Each stop gets the nearest other compatible hub that is reachable from the previous stop and still reaches the next one.
• Charging cost uses the network's price from our public-charging table, plus 8% charging loss. Networks not in that table use a typical $0.45–$0.65/kWh. It leaves out the charge at home before you leave.

Not modelled

Wind, hills and mountain passes, snow on the road, winter tires, speeds above 110 km/h, passes that are colder than the route average, and chargers that are broken or busy. Charge times assume you navigate to the charger so the battery is preconditioned; without it, winter charging is much slower.

EV North estimates (no published source)

• The temperature table, the heat-pump factor and the 0.90 highway factor. No highway winter test with a stated temperature and baseline was available to calibrate them.
• Average DC power = min(90 % of charger kW, 55 % of the car's peak kW)
• Unknown charger power assumed 50 kW; unknown car peak assumed 150 kW
• Cold-charging slowdown ×1.10 at 0 °C, ×1.25 at −10 °C, ×1.40 at −20 °C, ×1.60 at −30 °C (with preconditioning)

Sources behind the model

• CAA - Winter EV Test Drive (14 vehicles, Canadian conditions) (checked Oct 2026)
• ECCC Canadian Climate Normals 1991–2020 (checked Oct 2026)
• AAA (2019): 41 % range loss at −6.7 °C with cabin heat, combined city/highway dynamometer test (checked Oct 2026)
• Recurrent 2025/26 winter study: 78 % of ideal range at 0 °C, 70 % at −7 °C; heat pumps add about 10 % at 0 °C (checked Oct 2026)
• Geotab fleet data: EVs can lose up to 50 % of range at −20 °C (checked Oct 2026)
• NAF/Motor El Prix winter test, Jan 2026 (via FIA): 24 EVs, down to −32 °C, average 38 % below WLTP (checked Oct 2026)
• NLR / AFDC Alternative Fuel Stations API (Canada data from NRCan) (checked Oct 2026)
• Tesla - Supercharging other EVs (North America) (checked Oct 2026)
• Tesla Canada Supercharger fee pages, DriveTeslaCanada network reporting, Ivy/Electrify Canada/Petro-Canada pricing pages (checked Jul 2026)